While the 2023 southwest monsoon season arrived over Kerala on June 8 — eight days later than its normal date of June 1 — its progression across India since then has been rapid and here are the tentative dates when monsoon is likely to strike the rest of India.
Goa, Mumbai and Rest of Maharashtra
As per the latest update provided by the India Meteorological Department (IMD), conditions are becoming favourable for the further advancement of southwest monsoon into Goa and some parts of Maharashtra during the next 48 hours.
If this prediction turns out to be true, monsoon will step foot into Goa and southern coastal Maharashtra by June 11-12 — about 6-7 days later than its ‘normal’ onset date of June 5. And if its progression across the western coast continues at the current rate, Mumbai may also experience the year’s first monsoon showers by the middle or latter half of next week, about half a week later than the metropolis’ normal onset date. Based on weather data from 1961 to 2019, the monsoon normally arrives in Mumbai by June 11, a day after its onset in Pune around June 10. Thereafter, it reaches Ahmednagar by June 12 and Nagpur by June 15.
West Bengal and North East
Monsoon is likely to arrive in Bengal around June 18. The absence of pre-monsoon showers and the heatwave-like conditions in Kolkata have given rise to speculations about a delayed monsoon this year. But if monsoon keeps date with the tentative schedule, calculated on the arrival of the rains in Kerala, it would mimic that of last year, which was also on June 18.
Monsoon is expected to move into some of northeastern states in the next 48 hours. IMD has predicted very heavy rains (115.5 mm – 224.5 mm) to batter isolated parts of Manipur, Mizoram, Tripura, Assam and Meghalaya.
Rest of India
As of June 10, the monsoon rains have engulfed almost the entirety of Kerala, southern Tamil Nadu, and the coastal region of Karnataka.
According to IMD predictions, the states of Jammu and Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh, and Uttarakhand will be able to relish monsoon by June end, while it is expected to reach the states including Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, and Gujarat between June 15-20.
Cyclone Biparjoy Update
Meanwhile, according to the IMD’s latest update on Saturday evening, Cyclone Biparjoy lies over the east-central Arabian Sea as a Very Severe Cyclonic Storm. As of this morning, it was centred near latitude 16.9°N and longitude 67.4°E, about 700 km west-northwest of Goa, 620 km west-southwest of Mumbai, 580 km south-southwest of Porbandar and 890 km south of Karachi. From here, both ECMWF and JTWC models suggest that the system will likely intensify further and gradually move north-northeastwards Then it would progress north-northwestwards during the subsequent three days.
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